← Grand Archive Store Championship
Fire OblationTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1355
· median 1355
· range 1336–1374
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1317
Q3 1416
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
